Cephalopod’s death
Shows that, outcome regardless,
Forecasting is dumb

OK, it’s an awful haiku. But do consider for a moment the fate of Rabio, the psychic Japanese octopus.

Rabio successfully predicted the outcome of all Japan’s World cup games, including their battling 3-2 defeat by Belgium which sent the Samurai Blue home. Whereupon his owner sent him to market, to be made into sashimi, because “he’d make more money selling it for food”.

And that was for getting his forecast right!

Two thoughts.

1. It’s about the dollar; it’s always about the dollar. I have an acquaintance who was fired from his job as a fund manager for telling customers – correctly, as it happens – that they should sell out of his fund.
2. If the fate of unsuccessful financial forecasters – active fund managers, pundits, stock-pickers, for example – was to be cut into small pieces, they might be less free with their opinions.

“When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.*”

David Crozier CFP

*Samuel Johnson